Breaking Down Civil War 2
Journalist Andy Gno, after getting hit with a milkshake mixed with quick-drying concrete. Courtesy of Oregon Live.

Breaking Down Civil War 2

A year ago, I wrote about how we are already presently embroiled in a kind of civil war:

The first realization is that Civil War is on the horizon, and this is an important recognition that more and more Americans are waking up to. But the second, more profound realization is that Civil War is already here. Everything described above has already begun happening in many circles, and the fact that it hasn’t engulfed our lives and nation absolutely is no more proof of there not being a war than the containment of other military conflicts to certain battlefields denies them their status as “real wars.” We are living in a Cold War with proxy actors and conflicts playing out in a variety of fields, from the classroom to the courtroom, from the senate to the streets. The question is only where things will heat up, and how much*.

My interpretation of events, and our likely future, was based in philosophy and history and was largely intuitive. I am not a military historian nor am I an intelligence analyst.

Samuel Culper of the Forward Observer, however, is an intelligence analyst. His recent presentations on our current and future political state are the best that I have come across on the subject, and I strongly recommend everyone with an interest in the subject — or an interest in protecting their families and their nation — watch them.

1: Rebuttal to optimistic right-wing victory predictions

2. Likely breakdown of events

3. Alternative scenarios

The basic gist is essentially this: the right-wing presumptuousness of military victory assumes that there will be a “trigger” that will culturally allow actual warfare to take place. However, such a trigger is unlikely to take place, not least because it is in the left’s interests to ensure that it does not. This is why they will likely avoid any potential trigger policies (namely, gun-confiscation bills). Without such a trigger, there will be no real “war,” at least in the conventional sense, and the low-intensity conflict we have been experiencing will continue and escalate with lawfare, psychological warfare, and low-grade political violence, such as Antifa’s domestic terrorism and the Rep. Steve Scalise baseball shooting.

This is not “war,” but it is not “peace” either. It is not “business as usual,” and it is likely to get significantly worse before it gets any better, although Culper believes it is unlikely to reach the levels of, say, the Spanish Civil War. A more likely comparison is to the Irish “Troubles.”

This is in line with my own predictions:

Given what has been successful at achieving the aims of war in the last few years, we can expect a lot of propaganda, lawfare, doxxing, boycotting, and mechanisms of disruption that are as harmful as imaginatively possible without being outright illegal. Expect everyone unanimously to condemn as immoral anything illegal, like punching someone in the face, but defend acts far more harmful but not as clearly illegal, like getting someone evicted from their home.

The violence will likely come in two primary forms. First, riots. They will be billed as “demonstrations” and expressions of free speech, but will inevitably turn destructive, with vandalism (hopefully of the enemy’s property), and violence towards the enemy should they show upResults may vary.

The second, more sinister form will likely be anonymous bombings, in the manner of the IRA, Weather Underground, the Taliban, or Ted Kaczynski.

Naturally, Culper is more detailed in his full depiction of the possibilities, and systematic in his analysis, and it is for this reason that everyone should take the time to listen to his videos. But the actionable takeaways seem to be as follows:

  1. If you’re White, stop being a Democrat. Dead and gone are the days of blue-dog democrats, the old-school labor unions who wanted to protect the worker, and who valued an honest day’s work for an honest day’s pay, no matter who you were. The demographic base of the new left is identity-based, and hinges upon a shared hatred of the perceived dominant majority: whites (specifically, straight white Christian men). How else could a political movement like the DNC attract both gays and Muslims under one banner? It’s nonsensical, unless you understand why their message sells. If you are white, there is no place for you in a Democratic future. Supporting them is only buying the rope by which you — or your children — will be hung.
  2. Stop  expecting the GoP to save you. The Republican establishment is outmoded and stupid. All of their talking points are designed to minimize any allegations of hatred or bigotry, not to conserve or protect anything. And of course, they will be accused of hatred or bigotry anyhow, by an enemy who truly does hate them. The Republican party is not about winning: they are about appearing to be respectable, for maintaining the moral high ground (this is why many Republicans so vociferously opposed Trump). Speaking of which…
  3. Trump won’t save you. He’s been fun, mostly as a kind of psychological wrecking ball, but in the long run, he will have no real effect on the eventual leftist securement of a one-party state. He can barely control his own cabinet, and he’ll be out in a year or five anyhow. The demographic trajectory that is leading to eventual leftist victory has been decades in the making, and is not even slowing down under Trump.
  4. Nor will the heavily-armed right-wing populace. Armed militia are unlikely to be of any help in preserving the country either, because a full-scale war is unlikely to errupt. It doesn’t have to, and — indeed — it must not, if the left is to succeed, and so they will do what they can to ensure they never turn up the temperature on their own agenda too fast.
  5. Expect more violence. Especially in cities. Random shooters, riot-style attacks (like Andy Ngo’s cement-filled milkshake, and bombs. Nothing rising to the level of full-on acts of war, but enough to inspire fear, resentment, division, and hatred. Prepare accordingly.
  6. Localized Non-Compliance. The highest level of conflict is likely to be legal non-compliance, at city, county, and perhaps even state level. Whether or not this leads to full on secession — from states, in the cases of Northern California (“Jefferson”) or Eastern Washington (“Liberty”), or from the nation, in the case of Cascadia, the South, or Hawaii — is anyone’s guess, but it seems unlikely, at least in the short run. More likely, certain regions might simply refuse to enforce particular federal laws, especially laws pertaining to gun ownership, immigration, and hate speech. And on that note…
  7. Move to where your team lives. As tensions continue to escalate, it will become increasingly unsafe to live among your political enemies. Here, it is important to note that there may not be only two sides. While the current divide is largely left vs. right, the “sides” are likely to splinter regionally, and ethnic, religious, and geographic identities might become more important than one’s ostensible loyalty to the Republican or Democratic party. If you are a Caucasian Republican living in a highly diverse, urban neighborhood, you may be putting yourself and your family at risk. If you are a Democrat living in a small, rural town, please leave. No one wanted you there anyway.

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